Key words: polyester; output reduction; market development; raw materials

Net News: In the second half of 2018, after the persistence of the polyester market has increased substantially, the market center of gravity has continued to decline, but when the prices of raw materials continue to rise in the terminal textile fabrics factories, it coincides with the off-season of traditional consumption, unfavorable cost transmission and serious loss of factories; while the traditional peak season market is approaching, it coincides with the continuous decline of raw materials, under the pressure of high-price inventory, factories are cautious in taking orders and losing money. Loss pressure is still high. Affected by this, weaving factories have heard a lot about the early holiday of the Spring Festival this year.

However, since this week, mainstream polyester factories have introduced maintenance plans more than a month ahead of previous years. According to statistics, a total of 4.24 million tons of production capacity have been identified for maintenance, which is expected to affect the start-up rate of polyester around 7.6%. Considering that the inventory of polyester factory is higher than that of last year, and the overall profitability of polyester industry is weak, it is expected that the actual maintenance time of polyester factory this year, or after New Year's Day, will be larger and stronger than that of the same period last year.

How much room for market rebound will polyester factories slash production ahead of schedule?

Some large polyester factories plan to reduce production by 30% this week. The 250,000 tons/year and 300,000 tons/year units of Xinfengming will be repaired for 15 days in December and January respectively. More than half of the manufacturers have chosen to reduce their production at different time lengths during the Spring Festival in January and February. The social stock of polyester will drop dramatically.

But in terms of crude oil, OPEC released its November monthly crude oil report on Wednesday, which showed that the decline in Iran's oil supply and the soaring Saudi production offset each other, but the overall crude oil production showed a downward trend in November.

Iran's crude oil production fell to 380,000 barrels a day in November, largely offsetting Saudi Arabia's increase in November, as a result of U.S. sanctions on Iran. There are increases and decreases, but the market supply is still greater than the demand side, investors are still pessimistic, crude oil prices are expected to have a slight downward trend.

According to the PTA device in December, the overhaul is less than November, and the 350,000 tons of Yizheng chemical fiber plant is scheduled to stop from December 23 to January 23. The overhaul of Yisheng Dalian 225,000-ton plant is still under repair. Tenglong Aromatic Hydrocarbon is expected to restart at the end of December, which does not have much impact on market prices. At present, the cost of PTA processing and repairing is still over 800 yuan/ton, and the start-up rate is also maintained at 76.91%.

Generally speaking, although the upstream crude oil market has been cut down, there are divergent opinions within OPEC organization and geopolitical shocks. The United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia have formed a three-nation killing situation in the game of oil production reduction. Who can have a certain voice in it? We still can not draw a clear conclusion.

However, in terms of supply and demand pattern, it is an indisputable fact that supply far exceeds demand. In addition to the economic downturn, the 10-year financial crisis has followed, and investors in the crude oil market do not have enough confidence.

Downstream polyester, filament and staple fibers are closely related to each other, polyester profits are weak. Recently, on the edge of loss, filament is facing the pressure of cash flow. Judging from the start-up rate of all parties, the real new demand orders show a general performance, which is why polyester factories have cut production and shut down on a large scale.

Nearly two months away from the traditional Lunar New Year, and the stock of raw materials in factories such as downstream weaving is lower than in previous years, there is still some room for operation in the future. In addition, according to past practice, the maintenance plans of mainstream polyester factories are mostly issued one month before the Spring Festival. This early release of news also serves as a stimulus to the current rigid market.

But with the coming of the end of the year, people's mentality has gradually become rigorous, and the market has become more speculative. Therefore, the specific implementation of the reduction and shutdown of polyester plants is known. It is reported that on Friday, three polyester factories in Ningbo received feedback from hundreds of millions of export orders, resulting in the delay of their production reduction plans, indicating that there are still big variables in the follow-up. Generally speaking, we still need to wait for December, the trend of the polyester market is further clear, and then make a judgment. Break!

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